The First Planned Migration of an Entire Country Is Underway

Tuvalu is preparing to carry out the first planned migration of an entire country in response to the effects of climate change. Recent studies project that much of its territory could be submerged in the next 25 years due to rising sea levels, forcing its inhabitants to consider migration as an urgent survival measure.

This island nation in Oceania is made up of nine coral islands and atolls inhabited by just over 11,000 people. The country’s average altitude is just 2 meters above sea level, making it extremely vulnerable to rising oceans, flooding, and storm surges, all exacerbated by the climate crisis.

A study by NASA’s Sea Level Change Team revealed that, in 2023, the sea level in Tuvalu was 15 centimeters higher than the average recorded over the previous three decades. If this trend continues, it’s projected that most of the territory, including its critical infrastructure, will be below the high-tide level by 2050.

In the face of this existential threat, an unprecedented climate visa program has begun. In 2023, Tuvalu and Australia signed the Falepili Union Treaty, an agreement that provides for a migration scheme that will allow 280 Tuvaluans per year to settle in Australia as permanent residents.

The visas will be allocated through a ballot system and will grant beneficiaries the same health, education, housing, and employment rights enjoyed by Australian citizens. In addition, Tuvaluans will retain the ability to return to their home country if conditions permit.

The first stage of applications was open from June 16 to July 18. “We received extremely high levels of interest in the ballot with 8,750 registrations, which includes family members of primary registrants,” the Australian High Commission in Tuvalu said in a statement on July 23. The first cohort of 280 people will be drawn via a ballot on July 25, the high commission says.

“When combined with other Pacific pathways to Australia and New Zealand, nearly 4 percent of the population could migrate each year,” says Jane McAdam, a fellow at the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney, writing in the Conversation. “Within a decade, close to 40 percent of the population could have moved—although some people may return home or go backwards and forwards.”

Penny Wong, Australia’s foreign minister, said in a statement that the program gives Tuvaluans a chance to settle in Australia “with dignity as climate impacts worsen.” She added that this initiative reflects the deep trust between the two nations and that Tuvaluans are expected to make a valuable contribution to Australian society.

Feleti Teo, prime minister of Tuvalu, called for the support of the international community during his address to the Third UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France, in June. “Tuvalu calls for the development of an international treaty on sea level rise to enshrine the legal rights of affected states and people, including the principles of statehood continuity and the permanency of maritime boundaries,” Teo said. The Tuvalu prime minister also said that his country supports the idea of a Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty with “the ultimatum of a rapid, fair and irreversible phase out of fossil fuels across all sectors.”

The agreement with Australia is not the only action taken by Tuvalu in the face of the threat of disappearing. In 2022, the country launched an ambitious strategy to become the world’s first digital nation. This initiative includes 3D scanning its islands to digitally re-create them and preserve their cultural heritage, as well as moving government functions to a virtual environment. In order to protect national identity and sovereignty, the project is also contemplating constitutional reforms to define the country as a virtual state, a concept already recognized by 25 countries, including Australia and New Zealand.

What is happening to Tuvalu could be experienced by other nations. NASA has found that global sea levels rose more than expected over the last year. Its satellite measurements reveal that the annual rate of increase has doubled since 1993, with a rise of 10 centimeters in that period. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to rising seas, although the impacts are not limited to that region. For example, sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico have recently risen at three times the global average, according to a study published in Nature in 2023.

Albert van Dijk, professor at Australian National University, has emphasized that climate change is affecting all the planet’s water systems. “From historic droughts to catastrophic floods, these extreme variations disrupt lives, economies and entire ecosystems. Water is our most vital resource, and its extreme behavior represents one of the greatest threats today.”

This story originally appeared on WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.