Scientists warn Russians about powerful magnetic storm on Sunday

The forecast for the time of arrival of the solar prominence, ejected towards the planet the day before yesterday, Wednesday, July 23, has been clarified. The main mass of solar matter, as expected, will reach the Earth's orbit on July 27, Sunday, tentatively in the first half of the day.

Such a long transit time, almost four days versus the usual 2-3 days, is due to the small size and mass of the ejecta. Such objects, unlike large ejectas that break through everything in their path, usually get stuck in the solar wind, mix with it and, as a result, do not so much move independently as “float with the flow” as a denser gas cloud frozen into a rarefied background flow. Four days of transit is exactly about 4 days of travel from the Sun to the Earth for the solar wind flow.

Geomagnetic impact on the planet, according to calculations, will be in the range from weak to moderate. The probability of magnetic storms on Sunday is about 60% (of which 35% are weak storms, 20% are medium and 5% are strong). Another 25% falls on the weak disturbance scenario (yellow level). The probability of completely avoiding geomagnetic consequences, as is easy to calculate, is 15%.

The most probable branch of scenarios is shown in the attached graph. According to it, the plasma cloud will reach the Earth at about 9 a.m. Moscow time. The peak of geomagnetic disturbances should occur in the middle of the day. Complete stabilization of the situation will occur on Monday.

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