Record 72 Million Americans Set to Travel for Fourth of July

The prediction feels somewhat optimistic given recent trends. But travelers continue to benefit from lower gas prices and have mostly continued to spend despite economic uncertainty.

Americans are shrugging off economic jitters for the Fourth of July holiday: AAA projects that 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between June 28 and July 6.

If the forecast is correct, travel for the holiday would eclipse previous records set in 2019, before the pandemic, and 2023, during the post-Covid travel surge.

But the rosy prediction hinges on gas prices staying near four-year lows and Middle East tensions not spiraling into broader conflict.

Drivers are currently paying about 40 cents less per gallon than last summer, AAA said, with gas prices at their lowest since 2021. That's providing crucial relief for the 61.6 million Americans expected to ddrive, representing 85% of all holiday travelers.

The prediction feels somewhat optimistic given recent trends. One wild card is the Israel-Iran war, which risks increasing oil prices and is causing gasoline prices to spike.

Recent hotel performance trends also suggest weakness. Overall, U.S. revenue per available room was down 1.8% for the week ending June 14, according to CoStar's STR.

"The weekend results were not 'soft' to us but instead 'bad,' especially for limited-service chain scales, which averaged -3.3% year-over-year revenue per available room," said Truist analysts Patrick Scholes and Gregory Miller.

Truist said the results reflected "the combination of volatility in consumer and business confidence, government segment cutbacks, and diminished inbound international travel. And to these headwinds, we now add student loan debt repayments—likely impacting limited-service hotels."

Otherwise, a favorable calendar date might enable this year's holiday to break travel records. Because it falls on a Friday, more travelers may take the entire week off.

AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to “better reflect the flow of holiday travelers."