Migration to Europe is falling, so why are countries pushing on with crackdown?

Asylum requests to the European Union, Switzerland and Norway fell by 23 percent in the first six months of 2025, driven by a massive drop in Syrians seeking protection, new EU data showed Monday.

Similarly, irregular border crossings detected into the 27-nation bloc were down 20 percent in the same period, according to EU border agency Frontex, with arrivals via the Balkans sharply down.

But regardless of the picture the data paints, with right and hard-right parties ascendant across the bloc, the pressure to get tough on migration has never been higher.

"At the political level, there's this sense that we have to respond to citizens' concerns" on migration," summed up Camille Le Coz, director of the Migration Policy Institute Europe think tank.

For parties pushing a hard line, a fall in migrant arrivals only deals with part of the problem.

"It cannot be the only parameter to take into account," Fabrice Leggeri, the former head of Frontex, now a European lawmaker with France's far-right National Rally party, told AFP.

"An increase in returns" is also needed, he contended.

Currently, fewer than 20 percent of people ordered to leave the bloc are returned to their country of origin, according to EU data.

The European Union struck a landmark migration pact last year due to come into force in 2026, that hardens border procedures and envisages accelerated deportations.

But many countries felt it did not go far enough.

In October last year, EU leaders called for new legislation to increase and speed up returns, and for the commission to assess "innovative" ways to counter irregular arrivals.

The EU's executive has since laid the groundwork for states to set up migrant return centres outside the bloc and proposed an expansion of the conditions under which irregular migrants can be detained.

It also published a list of countries of "origin" it considers "safe", which will make it harder for citizens of those nations to claim asylum.

'Easing the pressure'

Meanwhile, data from the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) showed EU countries plus Switzerland and Norway (EU+) received 399,000 asylum applications in total in the first six months of 2025 -- the lowest number since 2021.

EUAA made it clear that the remarkable reduction" was "hardly due to policy changes in the EU+" -- but due to a massive drop in Syrians seeking protection following the ouster of longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad.

Syrians, who long accounted for the most applicants, were now the third largest group, behind Venezuelans and Afghans.

Commenting on the figures, however, Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner underscored the aim of further reform.

"Our proposals from spring will strengthen cooperation with third countries, ensuring that returns are effective and easing the pressure on our asylum systems," he wrote on X.

The EU plans have been criticised as cruel and repressive by lawmakers on the left and civil society groups.

But right-wing parties, which hold sway in the European Parliament, and a majority of member states want to plough ahead -- spurred in particular by Germany, Austria and the EU's Scandinavian countries.

Under the leadership of Denmark, which holds the rotating EU presidency, the 27 have already begun examining several of the new measures, several sources told AFP.

Despite some reservations on rights issues, expressed primarily by Spain, Ireland, and Portugal, member states hope to adopt a common position by the end of the year.

The goal is to start talks early next year with parliament -- where internal negotiations are underway and proving tough on the "return hubs" issue in particular, according to several lawmakers involved.

In parallel, delicate talks are kicking off between the commission and member states on a new system for sharing the burden of hosting asylum seekers.

The starting point is to agree on which EU countries are most subject to "migratory pressure" -- and as a result how many migrants other states should either take in, or provide financial aid for.

Brussels is to deliver its assessment on the sensitive matter on October 15th.

"Pass the popcorn," quipped one EU official -- in a nod to what are set to be highly fraught negotiations.